In both the wave counts the resistance level for the week is 6350/6400 and the support level is 6200. This week, it has to break either the resistance level or the support level.

If the resistance level has broken then we can expect a rally to go beyond 7000 level.

If the support level has broken then it is possible that the terminal impulse is complete and the retracing is began. You all know that terminal impulses are retraced completely.

count1:

count2:

23 Dec 13

I had a confusion in the last week, so just stayed away until an understandable structure is formed.

Now, in the beginning of this week, I have two views. Both have a range bound movement this week probably 6100-6400.

1:

The whole configuration beginning from 5119 could be an impulsive wave. So far if the points marked on chart is correct then it looks like it is going to be a terminal impulse.

If 'c' of '4' is completed then it is possible that '5' has already began and would make a top, if not, '4' would grow further down and complete this week.
2:

The 'C' that completed at 6332 could be 'A' of a larger A-B-C. Then the larger 'B' followed and we are at 'C' of 'B'.

In this view, it is possible that this 'C' has ended at 6130 and the larger 'C' has already began. Another possibility is that 'C' has not completed yet and so could grow further downside and make a bottom this week.

8 Dec 13

Last week I expected the index would move within the range, instead index went above the upper line with force and closed a little lower still way beyond the upper line I marked last week. This entire wave from 5118 looks very complex and unpredictable. There is a possibility of another wave count that I have listed in the second chart.

As marked in the above chart, it is quite possible that 'c' and also 'B' is completed last week and we can expect 'C' to follow as I have been expecting since last two weeks.

On the other hand, after 'C' ended at 6332 'D' began and ended at 5972 then now 'E' has began and could progress to make a newer top in the next week. The below chart explains that.

Hope I have marked the present waves correct and in the coming week the index behaves accordingly.

1 Dec 13

Although, the index moved within the range I marked in the last week, it doesn't show a completion status. Maybe, one more week of range-bound movement is expected.

 

The above chart is daily and I have marked my wave count in the perspective. When, I look at the 30-min chart to see how the 'c' has developed. It gives me two views. Please read the following two cases on how I expect the 'c' and 'B' could develop in the coming week.

 CASE 1:

'B' is developing as a 'triangle' (a-b-c-d-e).

If 'c' has ended on last Friday, then expect 'd' & 'e' to follow in the coming week. Here, 'a' & 'b' took 3 days each and 'c' longer time. So, expect 'd' to take the same time as 'a' & 'b'. 'e' could be smallest & sharpest. So, 'B' could probably complete in the coming week.

CASE 2:

 'c' of 'B' is developing to be a terminal.

`

In this case, it is possible that '3' is completed or still competing. And the following '4' & '5' waves would not go beyond the range marked in blue lines.

Let us see how market is going to behave in the coming week.

[All charts are taken from www.google.com/finance  symbol: NIFTY ]

23 November, 13

On the basis of my previous studies, at the end of the week, it looks like the bearish sentiment prevails in the market.

Now, the bearish sentiment is confirmed, but market may want to hold on at this level for the derivatives to expire.

There are two possibilities,

i) 'b' is still in the making. So, possibly 'b' may go further down and then expect a thinner 'c', a pullback.

ii) 'b' has completed and expect 'c' to grow as a wide and consolidation like pattern.

In both alternatives, the following 'C' could be sharper  towards the possible 'Support' Level.

Let us see what is going to unfold in the coming week :)

[chart is taken from google.com/finance]

Nov 17, 13

It appears like 'C' has ended as failure at 5289. If so, the following wave would retrace it completely. i.e. from the beginning of 'A'.
There is one possibility to negate this view. Thursday's upmove reversed the selling sentiment. If this buying can lead NIFTY above 6289 then my view of "C ended" can be wrong and probably index can make new highs.

If not, then the movement from 6289 is the retracement wave and the target could be lower than 5319 / 5119.


In the coming week:
With the bearish sentiment expect a small recovery and then selling continues until the target reaches.

With the bullish sentiment expect NIFTY to break the upper resistance 6289 with force.

November 9, 2013

It was very volatile week. And, NIFTY could not scale "up" as expected. Now, this coming week is crucial for the index. I say crucial because Two entirely opposite competing views are being configured and next week would be the deciding week for the market.

First configuration & projection:
C1 was from 5700.95 to 6252.45 and C2 was an irregular flat "abc" ended last friday at 6121. So, C3 could be projected to a minimum of 100% of C1 i.e. 6672.50. 

Second configuration & projection:
C1 was from 5825.85 to 6218.95, C2 at 6079.20, C3 at 6332.60 (or the invisible 6351 Diwali High) and C4 ended last friday at 6121. C5 is going to unfold in the coming week. As per this configuration, C5 cannot be larger than C3 and mostly about 61.8% of C3. In that case it would be failure wave and the follow up could be ground 0 (5118.85).

Suggestion:
We can positively look at the first configuration, C3 is always violent in nature. So, expect it to break the previous top in a couple of days. If not, then it would be a good idea to be cautious and book profits.


[charts are daily and taken from google.com/finance]

Study for the week Nov 4, 13 to Nov 8, 13

 
The view at the weekend Nifty has a different look. Probably wave A began at 5318 than from 5118 as I have mentioned in my last post and also wave B ended at 5825. For the next week I expect Nifty to grow another 150 points making a new top and probably completing the large wave began from 5318.

First post on 30th October 13

The above chart presents my view of NIFTY. Wave 'C' and probably the larger wave could be completing in maximum of another week. Since the wave is completing, the index may be volatile and probably range bound between 6100 to 6300 levels.