23 November, 13

On the basis of my previous studies, at the end of the week, it looks like the bearish sentiment prevails in the market.

Now, the bearish sentiment is confirmed, but market may want to hold on at this level for the derivatives to expire.

There are two possibilities,

i) 'b' is still in the making. So, possibly 'b' may go further down and then expect a thinner 'c', a pullback.

ii) 'b' has completed and expect 'c' to grow as a wide and consolidation like pattern.

In both alternatives, the following 'C' could be sharper  towards the possible 'Support' Level.

Let us see what is going to unfold in the coming week :)

[chart is taken from google.com/finance]

Nov 17, 13

It appears like 'C' has ended as failure at 5289. If so, the following wave would retrace it completely. i.e. from the beginning of 'A'.
There is one possibility to negate this view. Thursday's upmove reversed the selling sentiment. If this buying can lead NIFTY above 6289 then my view of "C ended" can be wrong and probably index can make new highs.

If not, then the movement from 6289 is the retracement wave and the target could be lower than 5319 / 5119.


In the coming week:
With the bearish sentiment expect a small recovery and then selling continues until the target reaches.

With the bullish sentiment expect NIFTY to break the upper resistance 6289 with force.

November 9, 2013

It was very volatile week. And, NIFTY could not scale "up" as expected. Now, this coming week is crucial for the index. I say crucial because Two entirely opposite competing views are being configured and next week would be the deciding week for the market.

First configuration & projection:
C1 was from 5700.95 to 6252.45 and C2 was an irregular flat "abc" ended last friday at 6121. So, C3 could be projected to a minimum of 100% of C1 i.e. 6672.50. 

Second configuration & projection:
C1 was from 5825.85 to 6218.95, C2 at 6079.20, C3 at 6332.60 (or the invisible 6351 Diwali High) and C4 ended last friday at 6121. C5 is going to unfold in the coming week. As per this configuration, C5 cannot be larger than C3 and mostly about 61.8% of C3. In that case it would be failure wave and the follow up could be ground 0 (5118.85).

Suggestion:
We can positively look at the first configuration, C3 is always violent in nature. So, expect it to break the previous top in a couple of days. If not, then it would be a good idea to be cautious and book profits.


[charts are daily and taken from google.com/finance]

Study for the week Nov 4, 13 to Nov 8, 13

 
The view at the weekend Nifty has a different look. Probably wave A began at 5318 than from 5118 as I have mentioned in my last post and also wave B ended at 5825. For the next week I expect Nifty to grow another 150 points making a new top and probably completing the large wave began from 5318.